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Zurich, September 21, 2009. The much hyped TV duel of the two German candidates for the chancellorship Angela Merkel (CDU) and Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) has disappointed the media, but both contenders boosted their support in the electorate. This is the result of the latest survey by five polling institutes. While the journalists rated the duel as a draw in gen-eral, they emphasized on the other hand that Steinmeier managed to catch up in the opinion of the yet undecided voters. The continuous analysis of the opinion-leading outlets Bild, Bild am Sonntag and the TV news by the Zurich based institute Media Tenor accordingly shows a slight advantage for the challenger as well.

In the first impression of the viewers the TV duel which was staged in a grand manner and raised high expectations of injecting some drama into a rather boring campaign ended without a clear winner. Both contenders disappointed the public. A real time analysis by the universi-ties of Hohenheim in Stuttgart, Mannheim and Koblenz-Landau underlines this impression. The amplitudes in chart 1 show which candidate was rated more positively in each moment of the 90 minutes of the TV debate.

“Against this background it is even more important who is hailed as the winner by the media”, explains Roland Schatz, editor-in-chief and Founder of Media Tenor. In the days after the TV debate both candidates were criticized for their uninspired performance, but the fact that the less well-known candidate, Foreign Secretary Frank-Walter Steinmeier, impressed the unde-cided voters more strongly, was judged as a success for the SPD candidate.
Bild, Bild am Sonntag and the TV news remain the crucial opinion-leading media in German. This was already noted by the former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who famously declared to govern with “Bild, BamS and telly”. In the last week these outlets showed a slight advan-tage for Steinmeier. “The SPD could stop its downward trend in the polls for the first time since May, but the CDU/CSU gained as well slightly after the duel”, comments Dr. Christian Kolmer, head of political research with Media Tenor.

The average of the polls by IfD Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, FG Wahlen and Infratest Dimap shows CDU/CSU of Friday, September 18, 2009 at 35.8%, SPD, her partner in the Grand Coalition at 24.5%. “For the first time since the end of May the lead of the CDU dropped be-low 12%, but the real push for the SPD did not materialize after the duel”, Roland Schatz points out. “For the next week, Media Tenor therefore expects the lead of the CUD to remain stable.”

Media Tenor International analyzes the coverage of the opinion-leading German media con-tinuously since 1994. For this analysis Bild-Zeitung, Bild am Sonntag, the news shows ARD Tagesschau and Tagesthemen, ZDF heute and heute journal, RTL Aktuell as well as the cur-rent affairs programs of ARD and ZDF have been evaluated on statement level for period from 01.04. to 18.09.2009. Overall 9,887 statements by or about Merkel and 7,524 statements about Steinmeier have been analyzed.

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