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Zurich 13 July, 2010. This week´s Media Tenor investigation into financial sentiment among cited analysts looks into the reports of increased exports in Germany and the effect on sentiment in Europe. The seasonal nature of the Natural Gas markets was highlighted by reports on rising prices due to the hot weather in the US, while the FTSE continues to be dominated by BP´s story.

Signals of a rebound in German exports were a key feature of cited analysts´ statements in the first week of July. Manufacturing and export numbers have been widely seen as the first sign of hope in Europe since the onset of the Greek led debt crisis. For financial analysts this has meant a rise in positive overall tonality around 20% more positive coverage, although the story has not challenged the overall debt story in terms of volume. Despite the fact that exports are underlying the German growth story, Media Tenor research director Matthias Vollbracht sees the broader Euro story as an ongoing challenge. “Even with Germany appearing to have turned the corner, journalists are still focused on the more spectacular Euro crisis. In volume terms the ECB´s emergency bond purchases, and the ability of Spain and Portugal to manage their debt, are still more significant”. The effect appears to be a continuing division in Euro zone sentiment.

In currency sentiment, Germany´s exporters are reportedly benefitting from the weaker Euro. There were some ironic calls for a return to the Deutschmark, which despite their intended absurdity underline the division in Euro zone sentiment. The massive loss reported for the Swiss National Bank´s currency strategy appears to have done little to damage the country´s overall positive sentiment. Vollbracht is positive that the long term reputation of Switzerland will remain undamaged, “Unlike Spain or Greece, Switzerland is not locked into a single narrative among journalists. So although SNB was initially criticized for its Euro policy, journalists are still seeing an early recovery and analysts are being cited on other factors, such as the gold price and the increase in demand from Germany, which are said to easily compensate for any losses the country may have sustained. Switzerland has therefore spread its storyline and its risk.”

Rumors of BP selling out to ExxonMobil underlined another week of problems for BP, as the company continues to dominate the FTSE coverage. Analysts have been brutally pessimistic on the oil giant and the takeover rumors indicate that sentiment has reached rock bottom. Vollbracht is concerned that the BP agenda has been off the tracks for so long, “As with the spill itself, the question for BP´s communication is how long does this have to go on?” For other FTSE companies the story to watch appears to be the impact of regulations on the banking sector. Analysts have so far not singled out any particular bank, but the large number of statements referring to “UK banks” signals potential concern here.

Among cited analysts, the BP crisis has neither spread to crude oil sentiment nor to the industry. This contradicts the trend in the mainstream media. In other energy related coverage, Natural Gas prices were in the spotlight with unseasonably warm weather in the US being seen to have an impact on prices. US Gasoline sanctions on Iran were also picked up by analysts.

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